Wednesday, September 17, 2014

NIHSIN 7215.KL - something brewing ?

Hey guys,

Suddenly the Fed's doesn't sound so hawkish anymore yeah? Alright markets moving on , I'm still upside bias towards 1Q2015. Let's take a look at what's happening over here in Malaysia. Blue chips, heavyweights, your usual conglomerates is now a shy away. The outlook for blue chips and heavy weights are indeed bearish.

A couple of key concerns - are the GDP components and weakness in the construction, property,palm oil and with oil prices below $100. Petronas reducing CAPEX - all these are warning signs. 

However, not every stock and sector is going to go down all together unless we are going through a financial crisis like the subprime or dotcom bubble burst because money have to flow somewhere anyway.

Here's noteworthy - Eastspring Fund is actually one of the best performing unit trust funds out there now. They specialize in small caps and if not mistaken one of the returns was from the range of 40-50%. Now that's alot for a unit trust fund, setting a stellar benchmark for other smallcap fund managers, interestingly enough - couple of fund managers have actually been making overtures to syndicate dealers for blocks of shares due to the surmounting pressure and benchmark set by Eastspring. 

So these tells you that retail risk appetite will be high, and is high right now.

It's always a cycle, when blue chips come off, then the penny stocks/ small to mid cap stocks rally , then when blue chips are oversold and all the penny / small to mid cap stocks are overbought then we switch to the grossly oversold "value" counters.

Now this stock has caught my attention,

I suspect it's some form of corporate exercise along the way. Flavor of the month are small cap counters with minimal shares issued preferably 150-300 mil shares, not too heavy on debts, meagre profits or a half empty shell. 

It's very easy to spot if someone is taken a position, there's always a reason ( supply & demand ) factor. Hence small cap stocks are easy to spot if you know something's on the move, cause heck, why would I want to buy NIHSIN if nothing's going on?

Check out the volume -


Huge volume break out just 2 days ago and today. 60Million shares transacted when it was previously only a pathetic average of 70k shares a DAY from the beginning of the year until July. 

My guess - it's not a classic pump and dump - from the movement of the shares, it was collective which would suggest something in the making and some planning. Current trends and flavor tends to dawn upon RTO's or injection of assets. All the more it's a microcap company which is easily cornered.

Technicals indicates a short term TP of 0.55 - 0.60

Trade at your own risk. 

Cheers,
Khaleesi

Saturday, September 13, 2014

virgin post + BRAHIMS 9474.KL

Hey guys, 

It's my first post as of yet here. Stocks has always been a passion of mine- trading since 17. Will be sharing my views on the stock market and stock picks as well.

KLCI has been taking a hit the past few trading days, but of course - with every slam arises an opportunity. Taking a look at BRAHIM's now.

BRAHIMS 9474.KL



Previously, well sort of still is- one of the friendly fires shot by MAS's restructuring on concerns that the contract will be terminated as it is an indirect proxy related to MAS being the airline's caterer for 25 years.

It's high was at 2.71, and then of course came MH370 which was a nail to the coffin for MAS cause the aftermath would be reflective on their earnings, which MAS posted horrible results. 

So BRAHIMS dwindled down all the way to a low of 1.16 - which is nearly at it's NTA of 1.15. 

From experience I know, a stock sentiment can be easily turned around when value arises and all the bad press over. Recent headlines on STAR papers - just this Friday actually, turning positive on BRAHIMS. Afterall they have been divesting and getting other airline contracts - infact with Malindo and Airasia now, also finalizing it's deals with Qatar and Brunei Airways in Nov to Dec which can serve as a catalyst - not forgetting banging on their HALAL expertise which their trying to capture market share as global HALAL expertise stands at US 1 trillion a year. That's a lot of money out there. 

What's next? Look at the chart - it looks perfect - grossly OVERSOLD + your golden macd hookup. Assuming everything is in line, all the bad news should have been already been absorbed and you'd be hearing good news from now. Afterall, when you've hit rock bottom , it can only go up hill from here.

My take - it's a Trading BUY call. TP 1.5 ( 20% upside ) - period ( short to mid term )

Happy trading. 

Cheers,
Khaleesi